Over 70% of specialists (24 of 34) believe that any fresh outbreak would be better controlled than the current one, which has been significantly more catastrophic. According to a Reuters poll of medical experts, a third wave of coronavirus infections is expected to strike India by October, and while it will be better controlled than the previous outbreak, the pandemic will remain a public health hazard for at least another year.
A global study of 40 healthcare specialists, doctors, scientists, virologists, epidemiologists, and professors conducted between June 3 and 17 found that a considerable increase in vaccines will likely provide some protection against a new outbreak. Over 85% of those who made a prediction, or 21 out of 24, indicated the second wave would arrive by October, including three who predicted it in August and 12 in September. Between November and February, the remaining three said.
However, more than 70% of experts (24 of 34) thought any new outbreak would be better controlled than the present one, which has been significantly more destructive – with shortages of vaccines, medicines, oxygen, and hospital beds – than the smaller first outbreak last year.
“It will be better regulated,” Dr Randeep Guleria, director of the All India Institute Of Medical Sciences, said. “Cases would be lot less because more vaccinations will have been rolled out and there will be some degree of natural protection from the second-wave” (AIIMS).
Experts worry that the situation might deteriorate quickly.
“There is nothing you can do at the last minute if children get infected in huge numbers and we are not prepared,” said Dr Devi Shetty of Narayana Health, a pandemic response strategy advisor to the Karnataka state government.
However, 14 experts said that children were not in danger.
A top health ministry official stated earlier this week that children are sensitive and prone to diseases, but that investigation has revealed a less severe health impact. While 25 of 38 experts indicated future coronavirus variations would not render existing vaccinations useless, 30 of 41 experts said the coronavirus would remain a public health danger in India for at least a year in response to a second question.